CIRCLE Reports on Youth Turnout in NJ and VA

According to CIRCLE's calculations of exit polls, youth turnout was 26% in Virginia and 18% in New Jersey this year.  Using the same methods, CIRCLE concluded that youth turnout in Virginia was 17% in 2009 and 18% in 1997, and in New Jersey 26% in 1997 and 19% in 2009. This suggests a significant increase in Virginia in 2013 compared to the two most recent gubernatorial races.

These turnout estimates mean that roughly 288,000 young voters cast ballots on November 5th in Virginia, out of the estimated 1.1 million 18-29 year-old citizens who live in that state. In New Jersey, roughly 206,000 young voters cast a ballot out of the estimated 1.2 million 18-29 year old citizens.

CIRCLE Director Peter Levine noted that "Although 18% and 26% are far from satisfactory, these statistics should be put in context," and that "Turnout is always much lower in off-year gubernatorial elections than in presidential years"

Read CIRCLE's full analysis.

* The estimated numbers of young people who voted in the 1997 and 2009 governors’ races were calculated using: (1) the number of ballots cast in each race according to the media, (2) the youth share of those who voted, based on the exit polls conducted by Edison Research for the National Election Pool, and (3) the estimated number of 18-29 year old citizens taken from the Census Current Population Survey, March Demographic File of that year. Edison Research estimates that its exit polls have a margin of error rate of plus or minus three percentage points.

Pushing for EDR in New Jersey

Last week the Rutgers Law School-Newark Constitutional Litigation Clinic filed a suit challenging New Jersey's 21-day advance voter registration requirement. The suit claims that advanced registration is an obsolete and undue burden on the constitutional right to vote, particularly with the rise of modern technology and New Jersey's Statewide Voter Registration System.

Plaintiffs include the Rutgers University Student Assembly, the Latino Leadership Alliance of New Jersey, the New Jersey ACLU, New Jersey Citizen Action, and individuals who lost their right to vote in recent elections because their registrations were not properly processed in time for Election Day. The suit was filed in Middlesex County because several students at Rutgers' New Brunswick campus couldn't register on time or had their votes thrown out in recent elections.

Making elections more accessible leads to increased voter turnout: "On average, states that allow same-day registration get 8 percent more turnout." The top two turnout states in 2010--Maine and Minnesota--both permit Election Day Registration. In addition to the convenience factor, the groups also have concerns about voting by provisional ballot, claiming that around 25% of provisional ballots cast in 2008 ended up being disqualified.

A similar lawsuit in Connecticut was recently dismissed by a judge because the state's electronic voter registration database was unable to handle same-day registrations. If the case is successful, New Jersey would become the first state to implement Election Day registration through the courts, rather than legislation.

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The Census Releases New Data

...and it doesn't bring good news for New Orleans. Last week, the Census Bureau released new data showing that New Orleans experienced a population loss of 140,845 residents--a drop of 29% from 2000. In addition to losing New Orleans city residents, Louisiana also lost a congressional seat (down to six from seven).

Because of the exodus in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, the percentage of black population fell to 60.2% from 67.3%. Jacques Morial, a community organizer, thinks that "The city is more affluent, more Latin and a little whiter than it was before Katrina." Many poor residents have stayed away because fewer than a quarter of the city's 4,200 public housing units demolished by the storm have been rebuilt. "The people who've had the hardest time getting back to New Orleans are those who had the fewest resources," said Tom Piazza, author and city resident.

In addition to Louisiana, the Census Bureau also released data for Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia because their election cycles are among the earliest. Check out the latest Census widget below for more details.



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